Mississippi State vs. Bowling Green odds, line: 2022 college football picks, Week 4 predictions from top model

The Mississippi State Bulldogs will try to bounce back from a loss to LSU when they face the Bowling Green Falcons on Saturday afternoon. Mississippi State opened the season with a pair of wins, but the Bulldogs came up well short of the Tigers last week. Bowling Green is shaping up to be an easier opponent, as the Falcons have lost two of their three games this season. 

Kickoff is set for noon ET. The Bulldogs are favored by 30.5 points in the latest Mississippi State vs. Bowling Green odds from Caesars Sportsbook, while the over/under is set at 52. Before entering any Bowling Green vs. Mississippi State picks, you’ll want to see the college football predictions from the advanced computer model at SportsLine.

The SportsLine Projection Model simulates every FBS college football game 10,000 times. Over the past six-plus years, the proprietary computer model has generated a stunning profit of more than $3,300 for $100 players on its top-rated college football picks against the spread. It enters Week 4 of the 2022 college football season on a 51-43 run on all top-rated college football spread and money-line picks that dates back to 2021. Anyone who has followed it has seen huge returns.

Now, the model has set its sights on Mississippi State vs. Bowling Green. You can head to SportsLine to see its picks. Here are several college football odds for Mississippi State vs. Bowling Green:

  • Mississippi State vs. Bowling Green spread: Mississippi State -30.5
  • Mississippi State vs. Bowling Green over/under: 52 points
  • Mississippi State vs. Bowling Green picks: See picks here

Why Mississippi State can cover

Mississippi State is going to be motivated to bounce back from a rough outing against LSU this weekend. The Bulldogs have already shown that they are more than capable of blowing out an opponent, beating Memphis and Arizona by 20-plus points each. They are also returning home after a two-game road trip, giving them some added motivation in front of their home crowd. 

Bowling Green got off to a terrible start this season, getting blown out in its trip to UCLA. The Falcons followed that up with a seven-overtime thriller against Eastern Kentucky and then played an overtime game against Marshall, so they are not rested heading into this game. Mississippi State has covered the spread in seven of its last 10 games, while Bowling Green has only covered twice in its last six contests. 

Why Bowling Green can cover

Bowling Green could have easily folded after getting blown out by UCLA and losing to Eastern Kentucky in seven overtimes, but the Falcons put together a resilient performance against Marshall last week. They erased a 21-7 deficit, eventually winning the game in overtime as 17-point underdogs. 

The Falcons put up 38 points in regulation against Eastern Kentucky before scoring 28 in regulation against Marshall. Mississippi State is going to have a difficult time covering this large of a spread against a competent offense. The Falcons have covered the spread in five of their last seven games played in September. 

How to make Mississippi State vs. Bowling Green picks

The model has simulated Bowling Green vs. Mississippi State 10,000 times and the results are in. We can tell you that the model is leaning Over, and it’s also generated a point-spread pick that is hitting in over 60% of simulations. You can only see the pick at SportsLine.

So who wins Mississippi State vs. Bowling Green? And which side of the spread hits in over 60% of simulations? Visit SportsLine now to find out which side of the Bowling Green vs. Mississippi State spread you need to jump on Saturday, all from the model that has crushed its college football picks, and find out.

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